Others believed as few as one in ten survived. A chronicler famously closed his narrative with empty membranes should anyone survive to continue it. Many of the Black Death’s contemporary observers, living in an epoch of famine and political, military, and spiritual turmoil, described the plague apocalyptically. Imperfect evidence unfortunately hampers knowing precisely who and how many perished. Assessment of the plague’s economic significance begins with determining the rate of mortality for the initial onslaught in 1347-53 and its frequent recurrences for the balance of the Middle Ages, then unraveling how the plague chose victims according to age, sex, affluence, and place. The Black Death’s socioeconomic impact stemmed, however, from sudden mortality on a staggering scale, regardless of what bacillus caused it. New analytical tools used and new evidence marshaled in this lively controversy have enriched understanding of the Black Death while underscoring the elusiveness of certitude regarding phenomena many centuries past. ![]() DNA analysis of human remains from known Black Death cemeteries was intended to eliminate doubt but inability to replicate initially positive results has left uncertainty. Proponents of Black Death as bubonic plague have minimized differences between modern bubonic and the fourteenth-century plague through painstaking analysis of the Black Death’s movement and behavior and by hypothesizing that the fourteenth-century plague was a hypervirulent strain of bubonic plague, yet bubonic plague nonetheless. The new millennium brought other challenges to the Black Death-bubonic plague link, such as an unknown and probably unidentifiable bacillus, an Ebola-like haemorrhagic fever or, at the pseudoscientific fringes of academia, a disease of interstellar origin. Aware that fourteenth-century eyewitnesses described a disease more contagious and deadlier than bubonic plague ( Yersinia pestis), the bacillus traditionally associated with the Black Death, dissident scholars in the 1970s and 1980s proposed typhus or anthrax or mixes of typhus, anthrax, or bubonic plague as the culprit. In spite of enduring fascination with the Black Death, even the identity of the disease behind the epidemic remains a point of controversy. Despite growing understanding of the Black Death’s effects, definitive assessment of its role as historical watershed remains a work in progress. ![]() Its gruesome symptoms and deadliness have fixed the Black Death in popular imagination moreover, uncovering the disease’s cultural, social, and economic impact has engaged generations of scholars. From its arrival in Italy in late 1347 through its clockwise movement across the continent to its petering out in the Russian hinterlands in 1353, the magna pestilencia (great pestilence) killed between seventeen and twenty-eight million people. The Black Death was the largest demographic disaster in European history.
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